Remember Betamax? Superior technology and better package size than VHS, but restricted and licensed only to "favoured" manufacturers. Now extinct.
My guess is that MS will force some suppliers into selling only Vista-enabled products. The smaller manufacturers will decide they can't afford the licence fees that will no doubt be demanded from them, and will supply only the non-MS market. That market will grow, because all standards work with it. A clever Chinese gentleman will produce a freeware HD and Blueray decoder, downloadable from his .cn website, and MS, Vista, and the major peripheral manufacturers will find how fickle the customer can be.
MS will go the way of the Dodo, and we'll all be happily using Linux. Or, maybe, our antique copies of Win XP, with the freeware and shareware enhancements offered by some of the same experts that write Linux.