2. Maybe an aircraft went tech (hardly unusual), and they blamed the weather to get out of the hole
That was my first suspicion however, if that were the case they'd be more likely to phone to put the hirer off in order to remove the possibility of them showing up at the club only to see people flying.
So based on this, I would say it was a produent decision not to fly based on actual conditions prevalent at that particular airfield not METARS from the nearest two majors, which as we all know (or should know) can be very misleading at times, especially at this time of year when one minute the wx is fine and the next it's bad.
Also worth mentioning is the affect of the surrounding airfield topography. This can make an enourmous impact on the take off and landing in windy conditions alone but if it's gusting more than 8kts (IMHO) it can present a hidden danger to some flyers. I have taken off in strong wind (but not reported as gusting) on a runway boardering upwind tree's before and the stall was jibbering at 10kts above normal initial climb speed due to the displacement of wind caused by the tree's.
Meterology is not an exact science - and when it's 'dodgy' it's always better to bin it IMHO.
VFE.