Getting back on thread.......
With regard to the stats published on the DASA link provided a few posts back by Jambo Jet and nigegilb - one thing to bear in mind. If you look closely at the RAF figures you will see a little 'p' next to them! 'p' is for provisional! Why provisional you may ask? Because thanks to the wonders of JPA the RAF is not even sure how many people are currently PVRing!
On my station, with the loss of SAMA, we are not even sure who is on the base. JPA tracks new arrivals and departures, but as to who was here when JPA went live....? I believe the PVR, nay 'termination', function of JPA is not working yet, so many people have filled in the old form, which then needs to be backentered by HR staff, who are overwhelmed by the current numbers!
Then again I would ask when does a PVR candidate show up on the official stats, when they first apply, or finally leave?
Finally, a large part of the problem isn't just the PVR rate, but the number of people leaving at options. The RAF has always planned on a certain percentage staying in. Whatever figure they have assumed I would say is well above the current retention rate (only 17% of Sqn Ldr ME pilots staying at 38 is a figure I have heard quoted).
There is more than enough evidence out there to show that the loss rate (PVR + option point) is well, well above historic norms. By the time the 'official' stats show it up it will probably be too late!