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Old 22nd Nov 2006, 10:37
  #197 (permalink)  
asianfly
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Shenzhen & Cork
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I think Cyrano is spot on. Shorting the stock was a good idea if one believed that MOL would go no further with his bid. EI shareholders don't have much upside given that MOL has stated that he won't improve on his offer (and which he must abide by for a year). With no possibility of an immediate buyout or a bidding war, the share price will most likely lose some of its lustre. Furthermore, with FR on board as a significant minority shareholder, there may well be a discount factor involved given that institutional investors may be wary of a a fractious relationship between the holy trinity of MOL, Mannion and EI management, and the unions. Combined with the ongoing open skies delays and increased competition on its short haul routes (from the Chief Mischief Maker at FR), things ain't looking all that rosy. Upshot of all this is that is a gradual drift back below MOL's offer price is likely and that will act as an upper ceiling on the share price for the coming year.
From an operational perspective, it will be interesting to see how FR manages its quest for domestic domination. SNN is all theirs now, the easyboys have fled the Irish battlefield, and Arann are facing the FR wrath on their busiest and most profitable route. DUB is split between the two, but EI have Cork to themselves. For how long is anyone's guess though.
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