Originally Posted by
Minorite invisible
You are not entirely correct here...
MI
I respect your search for an alternative to the C-17, but the Il-76 isn't it...at least not in the form of a shiny flock of new-build aircraft.
Russia pulled out of the Antonov 70 program with the intention of falling back on the new IL-76. I don't see them letting the IL-76 program fall apart also.
But that is exactly what has already happened.
The TAPO production line in Uzbekistan hasn't built an Il-76 for years and years. Aircraft have been handed over in ones and twos from a stock of white tails that built up during the 1990s...all rolled out without ever actually being paid for.
There is a ‘plan’ to move the production line to Voronezh - but this is a pipe dream. This entire sector of Russia’s aircraft industry is a bankrupt museum exhibit. Not one rouble has been spent on actually moving the line, and the cost would be enormous. Even the incentive of China's major order hasn't made this happen.
You already make the point that Jordan’s two aircraft have not been handed over – why is that do you think? When, and if, Jordan does get its aircraft they will be scrubbed up and repainted second-hand jets.
The upgraded Russian aircraft are exactly that – UPGRADES. Re-engined pre-existing Il-76s…and how long has that PS-90 project taken? The actual worked stated in 2003 and the plan had been floating around for about 10 years before that.
The Russian press (SPARE ME) is the absolute least authoritative source for information on Russia's aviation industry...just show me one iota of evidence that Il-76 production is being moved from Tashkent. This has been reported for *years* - nothing has happened.
For the Il-76 to be any good to your case it needs to be in production right now. And it just isn’t.
And if the outlook is grim for the Il-76 you can pretty much forget about the An-70. Ukraine can't afford it and Russia will not support it because it's Ukrainian.
The one (crashed and rebuilt) prototype is sitting in a hangar somewhere, rusting. As with the Il-76 there are agreements, intentions-to-order and letters-of-intent up the wazoo regarding the bold future plans for the An-70. Forget them. It’s sad but true that not one meaningful thing has happened to this programme since the first flight back in 1994 (years later than planned).
Unless...the much-rumoured talks between Ukraine and China bear fruit and the An-70 (or something that looks a lot like it) is moved to China. That may well happen and if it does you can forget any NATO customers.
I am with your basic premise on the Canadian situation, but you need to leave the Il-76 and An-70 off your list.
VC