Originally Posted by
Del Prado
BDiONU, they can't close the present scheme under existing guarantees. Do you trust those guarantees to still be in place in 10, 20 years time?
My crystal ball doesn't go out that far
But I cannot, currently, envisage any situation which would move the government to make a change to the laws covering CAAPS.
Management have many tools to force members from the present scheme into a new scheme. Who's going to look after present scheme members interests when 60% of the workforce are in the new scheme? What about 80%?
100% of members have to vote for a change, lets say that the workforce stays static at 5000 and in future its down to 20% in the CAAPS scheme, a 1000 people. I still have difficulty in envisaging how you could get 1000 people to all vote the same way, particularly as many of them would be approaching retirement or could see it on the horizon.
Your estimate of a 20 year 'tipping point' when new members outnumber old is a lot higher than union estimates.
Was just a very simplistic calculation based on all staff joining at 20 years old and doing 40 years (or 50 as retirement age moves to the right
) I know that there is a big retirement bulge looming due to the big recruitment drive in the 70's.
BD