I just have to take in what I see and read around me
That is the problem...mainstream media is not getting the whole story out. There is a left wing 'assumption' that anthropogenic global warming is a given...an undesputable fact...when it is anything but.
I wish us all luck with your $5 a bbl oil prediction
I make no such prediction. I simply draw your attention to what would likely happen in the, unlikely, case of most cars being so converted.
That hyperthetical can't actually happen for a bunch of reasons;
1/. It would take a lot longer than 'several years' for the market to roll over old technology with newer technology...1/2 the population just aint gonna trade their 3 year old vehicles in on hydrids in the next few years...nor should they.
2/. Govts and massively cashed up oil companies would never let demand desert oil at such a rate....it would bankrupt too many developing countries and a few enormous companies. They will manage the oil price so demand is maintained and prices held reasonable stable over time...the odd 'oil shock' not withstanding. That is ok too...if we reduce car dependance on oil by 20% in 20 years that will be more than enough to see oil prices depressed and reserves a non issue. Cars use, BY FAR, most of the oil...there are multitudinous option for driving cars besides oil...I recently saw a thing on CNBC about 'game changing' technologies. Those technologies that come along every generation or so that really force huge changes...oil was one..otherwise we would be knee deep in horse **** and our lungs would be clogged with coal dust....remember oil and it's associated transformation of the way humanity functions is the main reason we are living in a world as clean as we are. Compare any European city now to 100 years ago if you doubt that.
The particularly interesting technology, among the 4 or 5 mentioned, was new electric car technologies that will transform electric cars into truly viable alternatives to oil powered ones...i.e they will drive like our current cars in terms of speed, acceleration and range. I cannot remember the nuts and bolts of it now but it was huge...and not just pie in the sky theory...it was proven to work and all that was needed was to scale it up...that being the case you can bet Exxon, Mobil or BP will be looking to buy it and bury it...lets hope the owners of the technology patent will take a longer view and not go for being instant multi millionaires but rather let time turn them into billionaires.
Peak Oil doomsayer predictions just do not stand up to basic logic let alone fundamental cause and effect...and neither does anthropogenic global warming.
As an example given the current high profile, bordering on all pervasive, peak oil doomsayer BS is it not logical to suggest economies on the cusp of hugeness, like China, won't structure themselves in suc a way as to be far less reliant on oil than the west has been...the population is starting virtually from scratch in the car ownership area...if 30% of the new cars sold in China are latest technology hybrid etc vehicles over the next 20 years will their demand for oil ever approach what it has been in the US in the last 20? On top of that 30% of Chinese vehicles you can be absolutely certain that the remaining 70% will be made up of small, efficient vehicles, diesels, LPG or just your average modern 4 cylinder that runs on the smell of an oily rag.
They will do that just out of basic economic self interest.