To quote Douglas Adams and Corporal Jones - DON'T PANIC.
CVF is not going to be cancelled.
First, CVF is not a weapon system nor a capability. It's an aircraft platform. Dave-B by any measure is a more-than-three-times-larger investment than Liz and Charlie.
If the carriers go there is no reason for short-legs Dave-B, and indeed not much reason for Dave at all - it'll be Typhoon Tranche 3. If the big UK rat jumps from JSF, a bunch of smaller rats will follow, dealing the entire program a heavy and quite possibly fatal blow - at the very least, Dave-B will die (absurdly expensive for 250 Marine jets) and US Marine airpower will be stuffed.
Is the UK government going to do this, thereby (a) annoying the US military, Congress and executive branch simultaneously, which is no mean feat, and (b) demonstrating that the biggest pieces of its defence procurement strategy have failed?
I smell brinkmanship.
Treasury wants to cap the price. Particularly in view of the fact that there is no fixed price for Dave-B, and won't be until it is far too late to consider an alternative.
The MoD doesn't want to write a blank cheque either, but needs to get the CVF and Dave-B under way before the next election, and before the battle over Blair's throne.
BAE and Thales want the contract, but want to be sure of making money, too. They are therefore making concessions grudgingly, a few at a time, to be sure that they are getting as much money as possible, while letting the clock tick at the MoD. They can do this because there is no competition. The UKG's only alternative to the Carrier Alliance is no carriers, no Dave and the consequences mentioned above.
There is also (I'm sure) an element of theatre, particularly in the MoD/Treasury relationship. Have you ever tried to buy a car and struck a good deal with the salesman, whereupon he goes to "check it out with the sales manager" and returns with a long face saying that "the boss won't go for it"?
Last edited by LowObservable; 2nd Nov 2006 at 21:54.