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Old 1st Nov 2006, 06:43
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Shitsu_Tonka
 
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Whatever it will be, the price will be artificially inflated by short sighted (read political cycles) policies of governments who are in the clutches of the oil industry, and dependant upon the continued growth and success of a global economy that is inextricably linked to fossil fuels.

Poor economic growth = bad politics = getting voted out. However, the continued growth and demand from investors year after year is not resource sustainable. Unfortunately the policies to break away from this headlock are not politically palatable - they are considered too "courageous".

Hence stupid wars over the beliefs it will "secure" supply of a finite resource that is in a growing demand.

And stupid policies like globalisation, extending lines of supply to thousands of kilometres, when the local economy is able to provide at similar costs.

This all equals volatility in the market. Proven reserves after all are taken on trust from OPEC nations like Saudi, Iran etc. Independant verification of proven reserves is not permitted.

New drilling technolgies however are providing better new finds in the past couple of years - but still not enough to meet rising demand.

Oil sands are too energy hungry a process to be ling term viable - also their need for immense amounts of water in the processing creates a new problem with water becoming more and more valuable.

So what happens to the price?

It will be volatile - the highest peaks of late have been on speculation based on a lot of unrelated world events - the world stability premium. In the medium to long term of course it will rise, but too quick a rise makes alternative energies economically more viable and reduces demand - therefore cutting profits. The greed factor can be bad for the corporates if one is too greedy to quickly (and the governments who rake in the excise!).

US Politics is run by oil - have a look at the players and where they come from and where they go to after running the world (as they see it).

In some ways a new massive oil spike would be a very good thing - it would actually help wean us off the stuff quicker. Then the price will eventually come off - and possibly permanently, as new cleaner sustainable technologies gear up and reduce costs through economy of scale.
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