AI start: Very interesting, & I largely concur. However one thing is for sure: Its a fact of life that when these type of things happen (Gulf War for example), freight airlines do fairly well.
SR & SN are out of the market, freightwise. SR do not accept accept "new" cargo (unless something changed in the last few hours). So obviously less capacity around=higher rates. Rate hikes are coming, all the airlines have either already implemented them or are actively considering them. Apart from fuel prices (agreed, falling), extra security costs justify these rises.
Our global economy promotes the "just in time" concept: this concept cannot change overnight. It so stands to reason that since freight airlines are part of the supply chain, benefits (profits) are to be made.
Yes, of course some of the weaker airlines will go under. Some say that the likes of SN/SR deserved exactly what they got. There is a lot of truth in this though unfortunately it is the employees & tax payers who suffer.
I hear AZ shares were suspended this afternoon. Thats another carrier with dedicated -F equipment in trouble.
Do I hear that Atlas have unparked their excess capacity?
Back to AI's original point. The next low season ie between Christmas & Chinese New Year. We'll just have to wait and see who is still around; I'm pretty sure it'll be a few less than we have now. Something tells me the survivors will do ok.