They are indeed exciting times; what I would like to do is to leave the FR/EI aside and focus on the potential that exists for a very considerable advantage on t/a routes for Irish carriers. Just to set the stage again:
- Open Skies; slap bang in the middle of the largest single aviation market, with 700+m people.
- The ability to reach virtually any US airport from DUB, SNN (or even ORK);
- Question: who is going to be able to take advantage of this opportunity?
- NB: Just because Aer Lingus doesn't (or can't), it doesn't mean that someone else won't either. The market is there. Potential exists; someone will discover it.
- Look at our record in the past - the Shannon stopover, the short runway at DUB, the poor or backward planning - all examples of a litany, not just of wasted opportunities, but also of a casual attitude and wilful blindness to such opportunities.
So, please, please, let's leave acrimony aside for a moment; let's focus on what's out there and how we make it work. What I've said above isn't opinion; it's fact. We've screwed up so often in the past, but we have this HUGE opportunity dropped in our laps; if EI doesn't take advantage of it, the large US carriers may not either, BUT they have the capacity to throw at Ireland and come in and swamp EI, so it's not just a case of EI -v- FR, but a case of EI -v- CO, DL, AA, NW, etc, etc (and no doubt, UAL, when full O/S comes about).
It's not just a case of waiting around; we know DL is converting 757s with winglets for t/a routes and over the past 2 years, US carriers like DL and CO have been throwing capacity at European routes. Ireland being closest (and very accessible for 757s), it has to be assumed that once the Shannon nonsense is swept aside, they will throw capacity at Ireland; will EI be able to stand its ground? Again, I ask, given the opportunities out there, will 12-14 widebodies be enough. These are the questions we need to ask.
Do I have misgivings about FR being allowed to take over EI? Yes, BUT I have a hell of a lot more misgivings and concerns about EI being swept aside by the large US carriers AND about the huge opportunities ahead being missed AGAIN. FR intends to remain as a shareholder in EI, even as a minority (which I see as a rather good insurance policy for the airline), BUT ... let's make that relationship work; a combination of EI's name and FR's ability to develop new markets. Let's see how it can be made to work, because frankly, much as I love EI, vision is not exactly its strong point; DM says there's no way EI mgmt could work with EI, but when you have the combination of the threats AND opportunities which exist, that needs to change now.
US carriers know that FR is looking at long haul low cost and they know EI is key to this (whether EI recognises it or not), so once O/S comes along, they won't let EI breathe for a moment; however inefficient they've been in the past, don't expect them to be anything less than ruthless and if EI is unprepared, whether its working with FR or not, it will be attacked pretty severely. The best preparation EI can make, to ensure it's in a position to take on the competition and make the opportunities work is to make that 19% (or whatever it ends up being) work for it.
Whatever about the relationship NOW between the two companies, it would be a MONUMENTAL tragedy for Ireland, for Irish aviation and everyone involved in it, for these opportunities to be thrown away. For once in the history of Irish aviation, when we're presented with a major opportunity, let's not arse it up.