R2000/1830,
Your thoughts are pretty accurate (I think anyway).
If you have made Round 2 then CX wants to employ you. As recruiting may say.. There are jobs for everyone, it is not a competition. The only way you won't be successful is if you talk your way out of a job.
Having said that the Sim is VERY important. Improvement and the ability to learn from you mistakes and correct them (ie: can you be trained) is part of what they look for.
Another part of the interview which I believe is very important and often overlooked is "Why CX & HKG?". You will need to prove that you are committed to HKG, CX and expat living. This is very important too for you partner/wife if they come with you. Make sure they are positive in their answers & body language.
ie. a guy was asked why he had not applied to EK. He stated that he didn't want to live in the Sandpit. Asked if he had ever visited there he replied "no, I have not". When asked later how many times he had been to HKG he said this was his first visit. He was then nailed on why living in HKG would be any different to living in the Sandpit seeing he really had experienced neither. He couldn't really give a good answer. He was caught out by lack of preparation on his personal side. He was not employed
Above all, try and relax. It is one of the better recruiting experiences.
Good luck