I think the key question as far as long haul is, not EI -v- FR, but EI -v- CO, DL, AA, US etc etc. Don't forget that once O/S comes along (even a change in the regulations, to change the ratio of DUB:SNN flights), EI will suddenly find itself faced by significantly increased competition from all of these considerably larger US carriers. Will it be able to stand up to this and grow, or will it be snowed under? I know EI has carved out a niche for itself and that it was once a very good t/a airline; now, the sheen has faded somehow and it's not a leader in the quality field, in the way CO, VS, BA or others are. I don't want to be mean or unfair to DM, but he's been in the job a year; still, only one aircraft has modern IFE; the DXB route's success was undermined by poor scheduling (although this is being changed with the winter season, but could have been done from the outset).
I'm not trying to be mean to EI; after all, for sixteen years, since my college days, I've fought for an end to the stopover, I've done everything I possibly could to encourage a more responsible policy on aviation (particularly on the stopover), much of it with this aim in mind and I would hate to see EI being buried by these US carriers; that's why, given the choice, I'd rather see EI team up with FR than be snowed under.
My question is this: how much of what FR wants to do is impossible without full ownership. Whether EI likes it or not, MO'L and FR are there, as shareholders; why not turn this to EI's advantage? Would the fact that FR is not a majority s/h stop EI from working with FR to get a good deal on long haul aircraft? The other main reason for working with FR is that with the huge increase in opportunities brought about by Open Skies and in particular the Customs/Immigration pre-clearance in DUB, can EI - on its own - take full advantage of this? If it cannot, it's not just a case of "oh, too bad"; the status quo WON'T be maintained; other carriers will come in and take that. 12-14 aircraft is not going to do the job and that's why the wider, larger vision needs to be taken. It's not a case of just ploughing its own furrow, on its own; to make the best of the opportunities ahead, EI needs to change the way it does things. It needs to be a leader, an innovator - not just following the pack, as it always seems to do; in the new, liberated Open Aviation Area, with over 750m people (where Ireland will be slap, bang in the middle), the opportunities and advantage will belong to those willing to take the risk and if any possibility of that exists, I want EI and Ireland to be first in the queue.
That there is immense mistrust and dislike of MO'L is clear, but perhaps this could be used as a test of his bona fides; if he refuses to allow EI to benefit from its purchasing power with Boeing, or indeed, to work with EI to develop an effective, rapidly growing t/a network, then we can draw conclusions, but at least, for EI's sake, allow that 19% shareholding work for it. There's not a large time window to make this happen.