lomapaseo - ordinarily, I'd agree with you. However, recessions come around with great regularity every ten years or so and even I - as an untrained economist - was able to forecast this one (though of course not the events of 11/09). Every time a recession arrives, airlines are caught 'on the hop' with a huge overhang of newly ordered aircraft and pilots unions are demanding ever increasing salaries.
Those with wisdom tend to learn from experience; those without are doomed to repeat it.
Or to quote your own words:
Supported by history and predictable in the future.
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Breaking news from MSNBC.com: UAL has reported a US$1.16 billion dollar loss for this quarter.
THE LOSS INCLUDES $865 million in special charges and a $391 million cash infusion from the federal government after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, which involved two United planes and caused a steep drop-off in U.S. air travel. Excluding the unusual charges, the nation’s No. 2 airline posted a loss of $542 million, or $10.05 per share for the three months ended Sept. 30. That’s slightly better than the $10.27 consensus estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial/First Call but by far its most dismal quarter ever.
United already was deeply troubled before the attacks, suffering from the industry’s highest labor and operating costs and an economy-caused falloff in business travel, on which it depends heavily. Revenue for the third quarter was off 16 percent to $4.1 billion from $4.9 billion a year earlier.
[ 01 November 2001: Message edited by: The Guvnor ]