Yes, late developer, I believe there is more than a grain of truth in what you suggest. I welcome input from the 'back' about how you feel. (Not while I am operating, mind you.) Getting the balance right is what we are paid for. However, coming into SE England around dawn this morning, I would try to have an extra 45 to 60 minutes of fuel if I could. I would also keep a very close eye on all possible divs (as would all pilots) because if you are diverting, you can bet your bottom dollar that a whole load of other aircraft are as well which means that you will need more than the computed minimum div fuel.