CM
OK, basing this on some ballpark 744 figures of say 5T reserve and 4T div to LHR, I'd allow 2T to leave WILLO and fly the approach, so I need to be leaving WILLO with 11T. 10 mins holding is about 1.5T, so I need to arrive at WILLO with 13.5T.
Let me get this right! On your 'ballpark' figures, you are approaching 11T at WILLO with no workable OCT and you tell me you would expect to then fly 100 miles, fly an approach into Cardiff (no holding expected there?) and land with less than 5T, when 4T will give you a g/a from decision, and a diversion track distance of around 40-50 miles? No, not clear as mud. Is that gear down, speedbrake out or what?
Lets say I only arrive with 11T then I can commit to LGW, burn the 4T div fuel to give me 30 mins holding and leave WILLO with 6T to land above reserves.
Pedantry, but I think you mean leave WILLO with 7T?
120.4 = yes, 'cos holds CAN clear quite unexpectedly, and it would be throwing away an option to 'bolt' too early.
Another - the system as I understand it is that you do not declare a 'fuel emergency' (US) or a PAN/MAYDAY (UK) UNTIL you are in one? IF you start to get the cross-country vectors and you will be 'short',
then you say 'PAN'? That will focus the minds. Incidentally, I have always found ATC 'on-side' on a diversion and the vectoring has normally been pretty tight. In any case guys, if your alternate is so busy/has crap weather that folk are holding there, why..........................
