Well, how many times have we seen locos pull out of UK bases completely - it seems quite rare. Is there an element of the baby screaming to be treated like a grown up, and throwing its rattle out of the pram in an attempt to be seen as a big boy like Ryanair?
If there's an element of repetition here, it is that FR have already dumped all but one of their Brum routes, and that Baby are now trying to be the big player down here.
Why all the speculation about just one airline coming in? I doubt Peel would want to get their fingers burnt. Yes, sure, they could go cap in hand to Ryanair - just because they pulled CIA doesn't mean they couldn't test out a few other routes - GRO etc, and why wouldn't other airlines also operate routes IN to MME, without having to take the immediate risk of setting up a base operation?
I'm not sure about MME being BE territory - they seem to prefer airports near larger cities, and wouldn't they want decent yields to cover the capital costs of their new a/c? Globespan would make sense, as would TOM - both have presence at other Peel airports, so I'm sure the negotiations are well underway.
Now probably isn't the best of times to have to deal with this withdrawal - so will we see a rapid recovery, or will we see some poker playing before the start of the summer season.
My money would be on a couple of Ryanair routes to be announced before the end of the year, but no new base. I could then see GSM sticking in a smaller 737, but not announcing it until the start of next year.