Transatlantic the key?
The govt and EI have said that one of the key results of the privatisation will be investment in long haul fleet expansion, but so far, the "vibes" have been pretty poor, as far as reports coming out are concerned. I think the govt - and potential investors - realise now that if the privatisation process is to be a success, the govt needs to get clearance from the EU to proceed with the Irish/US mini-deal. Who knows how long the other issue will take? It could be all over by Christmas and indeed, the EU has indicated that it is optimistic that this will be the case, but then it could go on for another year.
The core issue is that since the sticking point - US airline ownership and access to LHR - has nothing to do with EI, what harm for the EU Commission if it gives the green light? The fact is that of all EU countries, our bilateral with the US is the most restrictive; virtually every other country has Open Skies or close to it - the UK (and I think, Greece, but that's their problem) being the exceptions, which means that the delays don't cost them as much as they cost EI. The govt needs to play hardball on this, if it's interested in the privatisation being a succes; otherwise, investment brokers may recommend holding off until the O/S issue is sorted out.
As far as eastbound growth is concerned, Shanghai was mentioned as a possibility, which is "out of the blue", given that HKG, BKK, SIN and KUL were said to be the front runners. Interesting option - particularly for freight, but again, is the 332 the ideal freight carrier and again, if they go for anything bigger, can DUB handle it - runway restrictions? And furthermore, if they do go east, they'll need to rethink their service product pretty dramatically ...