IMHO HECS would worsen the pilot shortage!
Why?
If HECS were introduced for pilot training, it would not simply be a case of an unlimited number of trainees being government funded. Rather, it would of course be on the basis that it applies to other degrees, namely limited places.
As a result, like any other Uni course, candidates would have to COMPETE for positions available. If you were unsuccessful you would then become FULL FEE PAYING. This would reduce the total number of trainees due to two major factors:
1. At the moment trainees enter the industry blissfully unaware of whether they have what it takes for THAT airline job. No barriers to entry is what has historically created the oversupply. Under a HECS funded regime, those that failed to secure a place would themselves begin to question their own abilities to succeed in the profession before turning a prop in anger;
2. Even if not discouraged by 1 above, "full fee paying trainees" would compare themselves to the goverment funded candidates and many would baulk at having to pay many times the cost. In reality costs would be exactly what they would pay now, but only perceptions count and the comparison would deter them.
So, IMHO, AOPA's lobbying is short sighted and doesn't take into account what the end result of HECS funded training would be - namely far less pilots entering the profession. I say bring it on and fund it with HECS. The greater the pilot shortage the better. It would absolutely gut the flying training industry. But from AOPA's perspective, be careful what you ask for...