Perhaps the question is, does Ahern? I think he and Cullen both do. Cullen's silence through all of this is interesting; he has neither committed himself to a particular result, but nor has he rejected it as impossible. I suspect that the Dept of Transport has its own Plan B in place for some time, i.e. if there is a delay here, this is what we'll do and this is what EI will do.
They know that they'll have little problem with the Americans, but it's the Eurocrats who are the big obstacle. Now, there is, understandably a suspicion, given the past few years' experience, that they may not be trying quite so hard, but I suspect that there is general expectation in the west that the Shannon stopover is gone and they're working to that assumption. However, I also suspect - and I may be extremely naive in this - that there is a realisation at govt level that if EI can't develop its long haul routes, they're at FR's mercy; it's not just a question of not wanting O'Leary to kill EI (though that in itself would be reason enough), but also the fact that EI's growth and development of long haul is crucial to economic growth in future; foreign airlines may come and go, but EI needs to be there, growing and developing its network. For that, a successful privatisation - and fleet renewal - is essential.
Am I right? We'll find out in the week or so leading to privatisation ...