We don't actually need any concessions from the Americans; it's the EU which is providing the obstacle. The Americans have been pushing our lot for years to move towards Open Skies and it was only grudgingly that they agreed to a phased period for letting the stopover die. The Americans would be only too happy to agree that the Irish-US deal comes into effect, regardless of the O/S problems; that's the stage we're at now. Since no Irish airline has any interest in controlling a US carrier, there'll be no objections at Congress level.
As for other long haul routes, yes, of course, they should do that, BUT there are a number of issues here:
- It's well known in the US market and that's its traditional long haul stamping ground, so it's relatively easy to establish itself in new markets.
- Similarly, it's less well known in Asia and without wishing to kick EI, its long haul product isn't quite Cathay. To establish themselves there, they'll need significant investment in the service product; do they want to do that?
- Is the A332 the optimal aircraft for these routes, particularly on the homebound legs? The A332 should be ok for BKK, possibly HKG, but KUL and SIN are out.
So, with that in mind, I think the focus will be on N/A routes; the minister has a month to get the green light from the EU to allow the Irish/US mini-deal to go ahead as it is; nothing will happen this winter; all that is wanted is an assurance for potential investors.