In correspondence with the EU, I was advised that if negotiations between the EU and the US hit problems, the EU could give the Irish (or anyone else) permission to renegotiate with the US, subject to the following:
- The agreement would be subject to EU approval and would have to contain certain clauses (since the mini deal was made under EU supervision, we can assume that these clauses were in there?), and
- The EU had to be satisfied that granting the right to negotiate would not compromise or undermine ongoing EU/US negotiations. Given that the sticking point is not something which concerns Aer Lingus, they can hardly claim this is the case. Furthermore, since our US bilateral is easily the most backward, counter-productive and anti-competitive of any of the 25 EU states, amending it to allow our "mini deal" to go ahead could hardly be regarded as a threat to any other member state.
Furthermore, since the EU has said its confident that a deal can be done by year end and since, at this stage, Aer Lingus can't do anything more for the Winter, what difference would it make for the EU to allow the minister to give assurances in relation to increased US access in time for privatisation? That's really all EI and potential investors need right now. (And if Open Skies doesn't go ahead as planned, the mini deal still can, because it won't make any difference to the sticking point.)
The govt really needs to take a hard line on this. If the privatisation is a flop and if EI doesn't get the funds to increase its fleet and add new US routes, the airline will be in serious trouble and MO'L will make it hurt ...