The US DOT has said it won't be in a position to provide details of its proposed new rules on foreign o/ship and mgmt of US carriers by the EU Transport Council meeting on the 12th October. This is extremely bad news for Aer Lingus, with privatisation coming up next month and comes on top of the increased threat from FR.
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independe...issue_id=14507
What are the options here? The EU says it is still hopeful that a deal can be done by year-end, but even that's not terribly helpful; even if the US does come up with new rules, there's no guarantee that these will be acceptable and while negotiations are ongoing, it's highly unlikely that the EU will allow the govt to negotiate a special deal or dispensation with the US or even to proceed with the deal announced last November. That said, Cullen will be under severe pressure to provide some comfort to potential investors next month. With short haul coming under severe pressure, long haul is the airline's big hope and if growth is stunted there, it makes life difficult on two levels; firstly, the mere fact of not being able to grow, but secondly, the fact that because they don't know WHEN they're going to get rights, they can't plan fleet expansion.
The EU holds all the cards, so if they say "no" to the govt, as they're likely to, there's little hope of their minds being changed. However, the one remote possibility is that since the EU position has the effect of imposing a competitive disadvantage on Aer Lingus and since the proposed Irish/US mini deal doesn't pose a competitive disadvantage to any other country, the govt could threaten to insist on a provision in any reworked EU Constitution to prevent the EU from acting in this way; it's a very long shot (and pretty unlikely), but there's very few cards for the govt to play.