Tandemrotor
<< If only there was a RECORD of the aircraft's airspeed, none of us would have to lower ourselves to such guesses now would we!>>
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You have the time of the fix from Aldergrove and the time of the crash;
you have the distance traveled in between;
a bit of uncertainty on the precise position of the a/c with the Aldergrove fix would not throw the calculations out significantly over the distance of that leg to the Mull;
the average speed this gives is just what you would expect for cruising for this type at its altitude, weight, etc the speed at impact being the result of this cruising speed boosted by the increased tailwind in the proximity of the headland.
The simple conclusion is that they had not slowed down at any significant distance from the Mull – which would have required some significant high speed later and closer to make up – rather, they simply were taken by surprise by the proximity of the landmass, the last 4 seconds of manoeuvre (which would have coincided with their passing over the shoreline) reinforcing this simple situation.
What is so complicated about this?
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In general, the tactic of challenging any attempt to fix any basic parameters of this flight in support of the mantra that nothing can be known beyond any doubt whatsoever is counterproductive – it has not got anywhere in 12 years – surely the establishment of the most likely flight profile, most likely local weather conditions, etc, etc, etc could reduce the problem of analysis such that a cause could become apparent. While you may think that this risks confirming the pilots’ negligence you must realize that their case cannot be worse than as it stands now - as I have posted before, even in the absence of any extra tasking I do not believe that an error of judgment in approaching the Mull constitutes gross negligence – they were not breaking any rules in the conditions as has been put forward in this debate.
And of course, if they were ordered to undertake a special task, then the whole question is wide open to fresh inquiry which would surely clear them completely and even lead to real justice.