Aviate1138
If a year is a long time in politics, two years is a long time in climate science. The comments made in that paper in 2004 have now been effectively refuted, and indeed a committee set up by the US Congress (who lets face it are not great fans of the global warming hypothesis) reported earlier this year that the warming trend is genuine.
It is true that a few scientists don't believe in global warming, but the vast majority do. Many (including myself) have changed their minds in the last two years as the evidence has stacked up. Earlier this year I asked one of the UK's leading climate scientists / modellers what in his view was the chance that the current observed warming was not due, at least in part, to anthropogenic influences. His answer was 1%.
Regarding the summer temperatures - no, indeed a hot summer in 2006 does not indicate global warming. But the following list of the ten warmest years on record is rather more compelling (numbers are the difference in degrees C above long term avaerage global temperature):
1998: 0.57
2005: 0.48
2003: 0.46
2002: 0.46
2004: 0.44
2001: 0.41
1997: 0.40
1995: 0.36
1999: 0.33
1990: 0.30
2000: 0.28
Current prediction is the temperature 2006 will be 0.45 degrees C, i.e. 6th on the list.
Finally, as a scientist working in environmental science please let me dispel once and for all one myth that keeps being peddled around. This is:
"Climate Change is what is happening - Global Warming is what Politicians and Scientists looking for massive grants keep suggesting"
It is far easier to get grants if you are willing to peddle the line that climate chnage is not happening, than it is to get funding if you believe that it is. The global warming hypothesis is not some great conspiracy dreamt up by scientists, it is the sad reality of the research that we do. Sorry!
I consider myself a "top-draw" scientist (I was made full professor in one of the top natural science departments in the UK at the age of 37) - I just can't see a scientifically-credible alternative expalanations to the observations (including my own idependent datasets) that are pouring out around the world.
Finally, take a look at the following graph, which shows long term temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Amazing coincidence, right?
Dr (Prof) Dave