Global Warming - split from the A380 thread
BarryT: you are right that the passenger profile will change, and the A380 was built around this changing profile. New markets in Asia will drive up the total number of PAX flying. Hub-to-Hub traffic will skyrocket, while population pressures limit the physical expansion of those hubs. Landing slots will be increasingly valuable, and airlines will see great value in a huge longhaul to accommodate all that traffic.
That's the situation as it was figured to be around 2000. Unfortunately, a few things have changed:
A) oil has gotten very expensive. Sometime in the service life of the A380, the world will achieve peak oil production. As we've seen repeatedly, even a slight restriction in supply causes huge price increases. That's enough to put doubt on the sustainability of explosive growth in the Asian market.
B) With Global Warming and its human cause no longer an issue of scientific debate, companies have to confront the possibility of restrictions on hydrocarbons, especially on burning them at altitude.
Whether you agree with them, these are threats that any company's long-term strategy has to account for. And to those threats, the A380 looks like a dinosaur.