It's not just the 'big shiny new widebody' end of the industry that is beginning to feel the pinch either.
Just in the last few days I was chatting to an Air Niugini Checky mate on skype and he asked if I knew any pilots who might be interested and qualified to be DEC Dash 8 at Pixie...they need at least a couple but I could not think of anyone.
Why this is interesting is because up until the last couple of years Pixie has not hired DECs for roughly 20 years. The few they have hired back, so far, are all pilots in their 50s and 60s who flew in PNG in the past. Clearly that is a
very understocked pool to go fishing in.
Pixie's last effort at DECs resulted in a influx of ex RAAF pilots who succeeded in earning for the Dash 7 fleet the nickname of the 'minus 7 recon squadron' because they spent so much time wandering around the highlands above MORA looking down before diverting to their alternate
. To be fair some of them left and the remainder matured into very good PNG pilots.
Most, if not all the SWP airlines have not had a payrise in 15 years and exchange rates have further savaged what were once extremely attractive packages.
Many, like me, got out of SWP/PNG aviation 6+ years ago (which was still probably later than optimum but I were having fun
) and have gone on to widebody airlines, corporate etc.
The guys who stayed were either too old to change..well into their 50s..or too stuck in a comfort zone and secretly hoped things would turn around (like I was for years
)...had kids in school etc.
They now find themselves heading for their mid 40s, kids older and all of a sudden they take a good long look at what their pay has become worth in real terms...almost by stealth..and think
The general comment is "Chuck it's not as much fun as it used to be...we haven't had a payrise in over 10 years and the exchange rate is in the toilet...I gotta get outa here!!"
They are now very saleable commodities...12-15000 hours, loads of jet experience in a variety of types, check and training etc. They can leave and maintain their seat or at worst spend only a year or 3 back in the rhs...no problem.
But who replaces them? Easy you say...the FOs who have been flying with them gleaning all the good tricks for these years.
Nope...they are gone or going. They are generally 10-30 years younger than the captains and VERY attractive to the likes of EK.
Flying large turboprops and smaller jets around PNG and the SWP is at least as challenging, even for an experienced pilot, as Dubai on the worst day...for different reasons.
Tropical weather, high terrain, useless/absent ATC, limited suitable alternates in daytime become scarce as rocking horse poop at night further complicated by weather reporting that ranges from non existant to abismal. Non precision approaches the norm...when they are serviceable...and, in PNG, often 'visual' approaches only....no IAL procedures in the hills.
This kind of flying requires great skill and experience. The guys still doing it mostly got their start in C185s/206s and progressed through Islanders, Twin Otters, Bandits, Saabs, Dash 8s, F28s and now fly around 'perfectly safely' in B737s, F100s etc. 20-30 years of
current PNG/Pacific experience...replace it if you can.
No amount of technology helps because it all becomes a liability somewhere around the MORA on a 'visual' approach into a highlands port.
This flying is hands, feet and brains...which is why so many of us enjoyed it for so long.
The depth of experience coming up behind them is just not there. The really talented FOs have left already or are having interviews and serving notice. A proportion of the remaining FOs are not terribly talented or bone lazy and a
very few are talented and happy with their lot and not interested in leaving...still stuck fast to their comfort zone...which is perfectly reasonable, never underestimate a comfort zone.
The traditional well of potential recruits to these airlines is drying fast/essentially dry because places like PNG don't have half the GA activity of 10 years ago.
Good pilots, in much smaller numbers, still cut their teeth in these places but don't stay the way we did....they are off in no time to
VB, JQ, QF,EK, KA or an SO seat in CX as soon as they have 3-4000 hrs and a 1000 turbine command. ...most of us joined PX around the 7000+ mark with 4-5000 turbine command and stayed another 3 to 5 years minimum...a very few are still there...I would bet that number will halve in the next year or two.
In many of these places the experienced pilots are retiring and the bulk of the FOs are leaving before getting commands to start the juniority clock ticking at a place with shiny new Boeings and Airbus...and 2/3/4 times the pay ++.
There is not an airline in the SWP that is not feeling this pinch right now...how much it currently is hurting varies between
really bad RFN and
problem...there's a problem...what problem?
There is no better time to be a young commercial pilot with a keen sense of fun and adventure....but the management/beancounter rubber band is seriously stretched.
What is the answer?
About a 200% payrise..and no I am not joking....that would take pay back to where it effectively was in the SWP/PNG 20 years ago.
Will that happen?
Probably not this side of a hull loss or two.