I'm still quite surprised by the level of optimism shown by A380 supporters, who are noticeably fewer these days!.
All the following was here, on PPRuNe, over a year ago so it not in anyway influenced by recent events.
Airbus thought they would produce and market a B747 replacement, with a similar market to the B747. Boeing had serious doubts about the commercial viability of an Extra Large Aircraft (ELA) and offered Airbus a Boeing/Airbus consortium which Airbus declined and said they would continue with the A380 on their own. Shortly after that decision Boeing cancelled their plans for an A380 competitor.
Airbus did not accept that the B747 replacement was already defined in the shape of the B777 and to a lesser extent the A330, despite airlines like BA and SIA ordering the B777 in large numbers and reducing their B747-400 fleet by equally large numbers.
The A380 has only a niche market. The airlines will, of course, welcome the arrival of the aircraft, provided in remains fully supported. They have specific routes they want to use it on, the UK-Australia route for one, but they will never order it in the same quantities as they did the B747-400, BA and SIA won't have fleets as large as their previous B747-400 fleets at their peak, they and others like them only require the A380 in relatively small numbers.
Originally Airbus said they needed 269 sales, I believe, to break even but since that figure was announced they have had major budget overrun and major penalty payments to customers to cost in, not to mention the discounts they will have offered launch customers just to get the order book going. How many orders to date? After Farnborough still less than 200 and they are mired in technical difficulties still. It is highly unlikely they will ever reach their original break even number of aircraft let alone what the revised number must now be, closer to 500 aircraft I would suspect. Boeing, on the other hand, will still be able to produce a relatively small number of B747-800 to fill the 500 seat long haul requirement and still make a profit as so much of the aircraft is already tried, tested and above all has passenger appeal.
Technically the A380 may be ahead of the market in many respects but it is leading Airbus Industries into very serious financial trouble and commercially the A380 is a dead duck.
Last edited by parabellum; 23rd Jul 2006 at 01:47.