Speculation
I have no handle on the scuttlebut at Lye, where no doubt the facts are known to some, but I wonder why the tyre explosion idea is being dismissed? My recollection of tyre/heavy braking problems is that the SOP was to stop gently, evacuate the ac and run away bravely due to the potential for tyres to explode, as they continued to heat up some time after coming to rest, hence brake cooling times of upwards of an hour in some cases.
Just noting a few things from the pics available on here:
There is no line of smoke, suggesting that the fire is recent to the time of the picture (40kts)
There is no sign of reverse (plenty of dust, but all behind the ac) - I don't recall the speeds through which reverse was used, but could this be indicative of and engine problem occurring early in the landing run? Engine problem > no reverse/caution reverse > increased use of brakes > hot tyres = 2 possible sources of combustion, tyres or dodgy Number 2.
The smoke could does not look particularly explosive (billowing, rounded edges) but rather more just expanding (ragged edges)
The cant of the aircraft suggests some sort of undercarriage issue, if it was simply a differential in fuel load, because one side had burnt a load off, it would be canted in the other direction surely?
If you lost a donk before landing, surely you would not land on a strip? On a v.important op task perhaps, but having the Ambassador on board might indicate that it was only a political, not warfighting task. Therefore, can one assume the engine was lost once committed to landing? (and therefore unlikely to be caused by SA, RPG etc)
All the fire seems to be below/behind the wing, SA might be stopped by a wing, but would something like an RPG not go through a wing leaving disruption to the top surface?
What was the strip usage? any runway grading/repair, heavy plant movement, previous landings, even Tac ATC runway inspections would have triggered a mine. Cant claim any mine laying experience, but I wouldn't have thought they coudl be easily, rapidly or discretely laid into a runway surface, even a strip 'overnight'?
Sorry if any of this offends those that prefer not to speculate, but as the crew and pax are all safe - and undoubtedly very bravely so - I hope it does no harm. I undoubtedly had old colleagues onboard, but since I departed the fix for civvy street I have lost contact - which leaves my brain with little to do but wonder - with increasingly poor recall of the facts and figures involved!
I'll go back to lurking now!