When the crew selected the waypoint change they would have been approx 600 metres from the coast. The HOL committee accepted that the waypoint change would not have occurred if the Pilots were experiencing significant difficulty in handling the aircraft.
They did not turn but continued to fly towards fog enshrouded high ground at high speed ( AAIB estimated the groundspeed at impact was "of the order of 150 kts" whilst Boeing calculated groundspeed as 162.8 kts at impact. Overall groundspeed from the ATC fix on leaving the Belfast CTZ to impact was 158 kts).
Mr Holbrook could see breakers on the coastline but not the lighthouse structure. All the eyewitnesses on the Mull reported the weather as generally foggy with the lighthouse keeper (a Met observer) estimating visibility as 15 to 20 metres at most.
The pilots failed to observe the rules for VFR flight and crashed at high speed into high ground in poor weather which had been forecast. Even if an unknown and untraceable "catastrophic event"occurred, it would have to have been after waypoint change by which time they had already been deemed to be negligent.
Last edited by cazatou; 29th Jun 2006 at 12:49.