Originally Posted by Wino
While you are right about the percentage of 747 at LHR, what you and I don't know the answer to is the percentage of traffic there that is O and D (originating and departing) vs what is connecting. Everything that is connecting is at risk to an aircraft that can fly non stop between the two end points for the traveler. I bet ORAC can find the O and D question for us.
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PS. The 777 is a lot smaller than you think. Typical 3 class seating on the 747 is 416 pax. 777-200 is 300pax. The 300 around 350 in 3 class seating. (these facts are from the boeing web site). Again the reason that airlines are using it as a replacement is that it is SMALLER yet can connect the two points.
Yes, I agree that we'd need hard data to lift this out of speculation. But we'd also need to know the LHR O&D proportion on those 747-rich routes, not just the overall LHR O&D number which is publcily bandied about from time to time. And in addition, we'd need to analyse the actual O&D of the connecting traffic to see whether any of the actual O&D pairs could ever be a realistic candidate for non-stop service.
As for the 777, it's obviously smaller than the 744. But as I understand it, some airlines are taking the 777 as a replacement for the earlier-model 747s that have had to be retired. I don't think the payload (headcount) difference is quite as big? But I may be mistaken.