Everybody seems to have jumped on the fact that Frank suggested that he may stop making the R22. However, what if he decided to do the complete redesign that the R22 needs to progress further? What is it that we actually want?
The major difficulty in helicopter design, especially small helicopter design is the choice of engine. Lycoming engines are too heavy for helicopters really, and de-rated ones make things particularly difficult. Unfortunately, there are few alternatives. This is a point that Frank has made in the press about the R55 that is on the horizon, if we take the R55 as an example to illustrate the point: You would have to work a IO-540 rather hard to get the ~300hp required for a healthy five-seater and the IO-720 is very heavy due to the long-block layout, neither make the 'Robinson de-rate' policy particularly easy to implement in a meaningful manner, not to mention the fact that the engines are dated to say the least. With the exception of the Zoche 300hp aero-diesel engine (which is STILL not ready) all of the modern diesel engines are heavier than Lycomings and are unproven technology when used in the demanding helicopter duty-cycle. Turbines provide that much needed power-to-weight ratio though the RR C250 Series has terrible fuel consumption, especially when de-rated, not to mention the fact that the cost of a new C250 is about half the cost of a Raven I.
In my opinion, if Mr Zoche gets his finger-out then his 300hp aero-deisel is a candidate for the R55, it will be a little short on power in its de-rated helicopter form but it only weights 123kg, which is ~80kg lighter than a IO-540-S, or ~135kg lighter than a IO-720, which is an extra passenger in engine weight-saving alone without the 14kg per hour fuel weight saving.
There is of course the question as to whether Mr R will allow is flagship to fly with an unproven new engine...what about his prized mantle 'De-rated pistons are more reliable than small turbines?' Would a new diesel engine be able to live up to it? Hmmmmm, not likely.
This is probably the biggest concern, the benefits of the more innovative new diesel units are clear, but when they will eventually be useable is anyone's guess. If I was a betting man then I think my money would be on an IO-580 with angled valves, tuned induction, smart exhaust and a bit of help from a FADEC system such as the various aftermarket systems out there. Simply because its a low risk strategy on which Robinson can bring to bear all of the experience they have in getting the best out of the old Lycoming thumpers.
The important point here is that the R55 is growing into a very economical helicopter to compete in many markets with JetRangers, MD500's and the rest of the entry-level turbines, therefore the additional complexity and cost is easy to justify. However if you consider what would be required from a 'Next Generation Training Helicopter', then the situation begins to look rather uninviting.
By the very nature of being 'entry-level machines' training helicopters operate in the most cost sensitive sector of the market and therefore a key objective of any new design machine is to reduce the direct-operating cost. This is the factor that is limiting growth in the market sector. However, if Mr R wants to apply a similar strategy to the one outlined above for enhancing performance and refining his approach, sticking to Lycoming power-plants, and adding 'all of the usual refinements' will increase the cost substantially. In addition, a greater payload requirement and the heavier rotor system and fuselage will require more power and hence more fuel consumption, hence the DOC goes up again. All of the time blurring the line between the R2X and the R44 Raven I...is it worth it? It seems Frank thinks not.
In addition, with various companies around the world working on much more advanced (and risky) training helicopters than the probable R22 replacement, all of which would take some market share, again questions, is the R2X a worthwhile investment for the RHC? Probably not...RHC does not need to take risks, its formula for simple reliable helicopters works and can be extended to the five seat R55 for which a large market, and profit-margin exist. Beyond that then a new strategy will be required as using the IO-720 won't work, so it must be turbine but Robinson will have to think very carefully about what its products offer when powered by turbine engines in comparison to the competition, because I for one can’t see it.
In conclusion then...[applause
]
If Robinson were to replace the R22 with a new design then, I would expect the machine to be a 700kg, IO-360 powered machine with a high inertia rotor system (still 2-blade tri-hinge). I fear that although such a machine would be faster, safer and able to lift more, it would cost more and struggle against a fleet of it's aging predecessors and the handful of more innovative designs that are on the horizon, all costing significantly less to operate. Some form of jet-fuelled engine will be available in light helicopters in the next five years or so and will have a significant impact on the operating cost in many areas around the globe. All of these facts will make it very difficult for Robinson to justify replacing R22, especially when it diverts valuable resources away from the R55 program.
As for shutting R22 production down, i'm not convinced that it will happen, in 2005 as suggested here, my feeling is that it will plod on until something comes along to take away it's market share or the demand for R44 and R55 becomes so great that all of Robinsons production resources must be dedicated to the production of the bigger machines.
But fear not, there are at least two major projects in Europe that will have new light helicopters on the market in the next five years, one in France and one in the UK. The French project is currently undergoing certification and the British one is the most advanced light helicopter that has ever been designed. So my advice is not to panic, because if Robinson leaves a gap, someone will fill and if he doesn't then there will be a couple of new options to have a look at, and the UK one has a sensational new engine!
CRAN