We will never know in the case of Iraq. After GW1 everything was set up and some very brave Iraqis had organised a coup with assistance from the West. Guess what? CIA got cold feet and we left them to their fates. I did not really mean a coup being the preferred method for change. Iran is split in two, the young people are very modern in outlook. Could be in 10 yrs or so Iran would have gone through a peaceful transition with a peaceful transfer of power from the theocrats to the people. The alternative is to be an occupying force which normally results in the locals unifying against. Not really sure what will happen in Iran if we strike. Will probably set back democracy a long time though. By invading Iraq a non-nuclear power we lit the touch paper for every Middle Eastern country to try and get nukes. If you have the bomb the US will generally leave you alone. Iranians know this now the race is on.