I am lead to believe that the 4th EMB may be for Jersey???
I would imagine that Flybe would want to keep the first few 195's at bases where they have the greatest number of jets currently, or where there is a significant engineering presence. BHX/EXT/SOU would seem the sensible options as there is a greater likelihood of recovering a teechnical fault more quickly.
Whilst I expect JER is on the list to get one to replace its 146, it would be a nightmare if it suffered technical problems given the location, so you may just have to wait a bit longer.
