Hi Gents,
I saw this thread and couldn't resist sticking my oar in.
FYI This subject has already been debated on
www.e-goat.co.uk and
www.airmech.co.uk with mainly the ground-eye view of how it could go.
There, the assumption seems this contract could probably go to another european country - to someone who can manage these assets as an EU-wide rentable item and by-pass the UK legislation on maintenance. Foreign Company and foreign engineers and for
I think the rather quaint notion of having RAF engineers doing for you, is out of the window.
The reason being that another EU country's NAA may be able to waive the EU and ICAO Rules of Maintenance Licensing for MOD, but I believe the UK CAA would collapse the UK's Market of UK Aircraft Engineers' hard fought Licences if it changed their own licensing rules for one contract. (Though, we still have to see how stupid this government really is!)
These aircraft will most likely be maintained to an EASA Part 145 approved AMP - even if they do have "additional operational equipment" such as Air to Air Refueling (as they would under existing UK rules of COMR or Police Ops aircraft).
Under COMR - Piloting and OPs Planning may belong to the military, but you can bet that Maintenance and Maintenance Planning (and Financial planning too) will be from a civil contractor, from whichever country that may be (France is my bet).
See FBS at Shawbury for a small form of confirmation of these regulations. There are no RAF engineers there (1) and they are audited by the CAA primarily, then by the RAF.
(1: Except for an engineering contract auditor, maybe.)