Hey Flibbertigibbet i went through the same assessment round - i had my panel about 8 weeks ago, medical about 3 weeks ago, ref checks have been done but still no news. There are a lot of others that are from the same round and are still waiting for some news, so you're definitely not on your own!
I'm not sure how to predict these guys, but i do know of at least 2 people who have received a rejection email at the beginning of this week - hang in there you could still be waiting for good news. The security checks take ages so they could be what is separating people in how soon they hear. Also, MAM have a history of calling people and offering them a spot in a training school virtually the next day, so it's not necessarily bad news that you haven't heard anything yet.