How Long Will the Bombers Last?
The B-1 flies low-level, high-speed missions which take a physical toll on the airplane. Based on continued rough usage, and gauging the rate at which B-1s have been lost in peacetime training, USAF expects the B-1 fleet to dip below a minimum-required level of 89 aircraft in 2018. The overall fleet will wear out in 2038
No B-2s have been lost in accidents, so the Air Force guesses that its attrition rate will mirror that of the B-52, with one crash every 10 years. Based on that, as well as a design life of about 40,000 hours and a fairly benign flight profile, the B-2 fleet will likely drop below the minimum of 19 needed by 2027.
Most robust of the three bombers is the B-52, built at a time when little was known about aircraft life expectancy. To be safe, the B-52s were built to take twice the expected punishment. Now serving as a high-flying bomb truck, the B-52's main limiting structure is the upper wing surface, which will give out sometime after 32,500 hours. Expected mishaps and fatigue will bring the B-52 fleet below the 62 required in about 2044. First built of the three, the B-52 will outlast its newer stablemates by up to 26 years.
The Air Force noted that the predictions for all three bombers will be affected by actual wartime usage, changes in tactics, unexpected technical problems, or changes in the threat.
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Amended to point out that these figures were produced on airframe hours usage prior to GW II and also assumed that only 1 x B-1B would be lost every 5 years. On that assumption a new bomber was to be required in service no earlier than 2038. Those figures have been re-assessed, as has the need for a bomber able to penetrate Chinese defenses. The DoD now wants a
a new bomber/strike force in service around 2018.
Some want a hypersonic spaceplan, but it is not really achievable in the required time frame. Others are pushing a new B2 size UAV with long on-station loiter time, others a FB-22 variant. It will probably be a mixture of the last two.