A400M definitely going ahead. Airbus are a commercial organisation of some renown and have a contract that means it is as expensive to back out of the deal as it is to continue. Look out for it flying in 08/09 and arriving with the RAF in 2010. Give it a chance to find its feet tho!
Ahhh, now FSTA, I understand is still going through lots of rather complex contract negotiations. Nothing formal yet, althought the AirTanker consortium is preferred bidder. This one could run for a while yet.