It would be interesting to do a comparison of accidents per embarked flight hour for CV vs STOVL ops today. Not entirely convinced that the difference is as great as JackoNicko implies.
The other thing about CV recoveries is that if something does go wrong, bolters are possible. In STOVL, you're entirely reliant on your thrust column(s). (Yes, I know you can only bolter if you have enough fuel for subsequent recoveries - which is also applicable to land ops).
The really disturbing thing with the current STOVL "bring-back" limitations is the proposal lurking around the bazaars to try Rolling Vertical Landings aboard ship. On finals at ~ 50kts relative, touchdown at 40 and then stand on the brakes. Sounds like just about the worst place imaginable, thrust winding down, limited braking area (with a splash at the end of it) and no way of getting airborne again. Shows how deperate the STOVL mafia are to try and stay in the game.