What are the odds
Stagger raises a very valid point, one which intuitively most people miss.
If an engine failure is a random event, i.e has no connection to the plane itself or the crew operating than he is correct. With 3 engines you have 50% more opportunity of an engine failure than with two.
Think of the coin toss problem. You toss a coin 49 times and it comes up heads every time. What are the odds of heads on the 50th toss? Actually they remain 1 out 2. The coin does not "know" what happened before.
Likewise Donk 3 has no clue Donk 1 has packed it in. If Donk 3 figures it is time, it is time, Donk 1 does not enter the equation.
What the real issue is what is the probablity of two engines going at once. Very remote and considerably less than your getting murdered in a LA hotel room. People get murdered in LA hotels every year but multiple engine failures seem to be pretty scarce.
On the previous thread I asked if anyone could give a case of two or more modern jet engines failing on a single flight and the only ones offered were from bad fuel or bad maintenance. In either case 2 engines or 10 it makes no difference, bad fuel and you are going down. I understand that is why different mechanics work on different engines on the same ship. Makes perfect sense.
20driver