I am sure that this will roll on for another couple of years.
There is no conceivable way that K-S would have won his case. If he ever thought that he had a chance at CM, he was clearly sniffing the ether (or whatever). He was on very shaky ground (there was a UN resolution other than the sham of 1441 etc by the time he was due to go and he didn't just refuse to go, he refused to undertake training to go) but the thought that a CM - as opposed to a civilian court - would agree with his argument is laughable.
His lawyer would have realised that from the outset and the goal would have been - and still will be - to fight the case in the UK and European civilian courts. If I were a betting man, I would be putting money on K-S doing no jail time at all, with his custodial sentence suspended or quashed on appeal. He may even have the verdict overturned, if he strikes lucky.
This contrasts with the more sensible approach taken by the ex-SAS trooper, who made his point and left quietly.
Cases like this are the tip of the iceberg - there will be quite a few Armed Forces personnel who left prematurely without making a scene over the Iraq debacle. Myself for one!