SF Fred...
I've dug up some interesting facts which don't really seem to support a life expectancy of 18 months for long-haul flight crew as you suggest.
The mortality tables in most common use currently are the "92" Series. These relate to a study of insured pensioner mortality during the period 1991 to 1994 by the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI), a research project organised by the Actuarial Profession. During the course of 2005 the CMI published its proposals for a new set of standard mortality tables - the "00" Series. These tables are based on the experience of 1999 to 2002. We expect that final tables will be officially published around Spring 2006.
(Source:
http://www.barnett-waddingham.co.uk/...3/viewDocument)
Now, BA themselves are on record to say that life expectancy of their flight crews exceeds that of the general population by 3-5 years in this thread here:
http://www.britishairways.com/travel...c/public/en_gb
Effects on crew
British Airways works closely with the UK Government, Civil Aviation Authority and the National Radiological Protection Board and has monitored cosmic radiation on board its aircraft for more than 20 years. Monitoring instruments were permanently installed on Concorde and regular measurements are also made on long range Boeing 747-400 aircraft. In addition, British Airways has undertaken epidemiological studies examining the incidence of disease and life expectancy of flight crew over the last 40 years.
It has been found that pilots and flight engineers have an increased life expectancy of between 3 and 5 years compared to the general population. Death rates from heart disease and all cancers combined are considerably less in flight crew then for the population of England and Wales as a whole and, although rare, death from melanoma (which is associated with exposure to sunlight) was the only cause of cancer in excess. Cancer such as leukaemia, which may be linked to radiation exposure, was lower than for the general population.
Further larger studies are continuing to which British Airways is contributing and as a result, more information will be available in due course.
It should also be mentioned that the actuarial profession (in response to the Pension's Commission Report by Lord Turner), published a table which shows:
...the average life expectancy for a male beyond SPA (State Pensionable Age, 65) is 19.4 years in 2005 and expected to rise to 20.9 years by 2050 - (an increase of 1.5 years). Male life expectancy at age 65 has increased by a little over 5.5 years over the period 1985 to 2005.
http://www.actuaries.org.uk/files/pd...aper1_resp.pdf
So... one can draw 2 conclusions...
1) The average life expectancy of a long-haul BA pilot will be 20+ Years from age 65 and
2) It is likely that SPA will rise beyond age 65 in the future (as proposed by Lord Turner and the actuarial profession). But whilst there is room for Flight Crew compulsory retirement to increase also - it is doubtful that it will increase beyond age 65 by the time current pensions mature. Not only is life expectancy itself increasing, but with a fixed retirement age for flight crew, the proportion of working lifetime to pensionable lifetime is decreasing. It is therefore very doubtful that the current pension arrangements would be sufficient.
I happen to believe that BA pilots are being treated VERY unfairly (and I am not one of them - although I am a BALPA member), and the real solution surely is to review the level of contributions being paid by scheme members and the Company (amongst other measures) - NOT to take away pension benefits as being proposed. If the BA pilots want to strike I would be 100% behind them - but there does need to be a real attempt by BALPA, their members and (not least) the Scheme's Trustees and Financial advisors to reach an equitable solution.