By the looks of things, BA's pension problems should be resolved (in terms of coming to an agreement with unions) by this year. Here is the agreement:
http://www.britishairways.com/travel...s/public/en_gb
If accepted, the pension deficit should be cut down significantly.
As for open skies, I think BA will be able to compete when it comes into operation. It looks like open skies will not mean BA giving up slots at LHR, therefore while all US airlines will be theoretically allowed to operate into LHR, it is doubtful they will be able to gain enough slots before 2010/11 (when mixed ops at LHR begin) to pose a significant threat to BA. Also if BA and AA are granted ATI (Anti Trust Immunity), which is dependent upon open skies, BA's US operations will be strengthened, making it and AA the airlines with greatest frequency and coverage to and from the US.
Once Open Skies has begun and BA have completed their move to T5, pensions and fleet renewal completed, you will see BA making its move in the process of European airline consolidation. Expect a AF/KL type merger or LH/LX takeover from BA for IB or AY.
I think BA has a bright future ahead. They are investing in new technology and onboard products like mad and taking the right steps to become a more efficient and lean business. Virgin Atlantic is another airline which seems to be focussed, but I am concerned about how VS will cope when Open Skies begins - while they have a great product, they don't have the slots to compete effectively or an alliance partner. For example BA has 7 daily LHR-JFK, 3 daily LHR-EWR and fellow partner AA has 5 daily LHR-JFK. VS on the other hand only has 3 daily LHR-JFK and 3 daily LHR-EWR. With US operations accounting for over 60/70% of revenue, the impact will be great. You can see why SRB and VS are keen to merge with BD.
As for BD, while Open Skies will allow them to operate US flights from LHR, where will they get the aircraft from? If they want to utilise their present aircraft of 3 A330s, it will mean BOM, RUH, ORD and JED will have to be sacrificed. If howver they do decide to place an order, how will they finance it with
operating profits of £5m, which incidentally is being achieved with the help of LH/SK?
While it is great news that bmi reported a profit instead of a loss, there are still many obstacles ahead. I wish bmi and their staff all the best.