Oil reserves and their longevity is most certainly a problem. The recent increases in the price of oil have made extraction from difficult fields more economically viable, but are not yet at a level where extraction from oil shale is potentially viable. I say 'potentially' because it currently costs considerably more energy to extract oil from shale than is realised from the extraction - i.e. it's a waste of time, money and energy right now! I don't doubt, however, that technology will be developed to extract it, but it may well be too late to enable a continuation of aviation's current expansion, and the overall result is more likely to be a considerable reduction in commercial aviation in the long term.
For an unbiased, objective and hyperbole-free report on oil reserves, have a read of
this report by the US Army Corps of Engineers. I don't find its conclusions particularly comforting. For an up to date listing of world oil reserves, look
here.
As for the effect of the price of oil in the short term, aviation fuel costs have increased by between 100% and 500% in the last two years, depending on how effective a particular airline's hedging policy was. The passenger is now paying a large fuel subsidy on every flight from every carrier, though some simply reduce discounts or increase other charges to absorb the costs. There has been no noticeable effect on demand. So far.
boogie-nicely, your comment:
Would we really look like rickety by-plane technology come a 100 years from now and laugh in a nostalgic manner at the primitive 777 and A380
is interesting. Actually, I think it's quite possible that the A380 and maybe the B777 will still be flying up to 100 years from now. The RAF have only just retired the Canberra after 50 years in service (half of the life of aviation!), and the USAF expect the B52 to reach 60 years in service. There are several airliners in their 40s, and a few like the DC3/C47 that are still in service between 60 and 70 years after they were made. For a new-build aircraft to reach 100 years is far from unimaginable!
Scroggs