There is no possibility of a YES vote as things stand - and our managers know it. There is a dispute right now over what the new deal means to different people in the light of the huge change that will come in regarding salary calculation. It has become apparent to everyone, including the Flt Ops management and the BALPA CC, that the company simply got the figures wrong. What was billed as a genuine 3.5% rise in salary has turned out not to be unless we make our maximum predicted bonus levels, which seems unlikely at this stage.
I have given considerable thought to this and some may regard me as naive in my take on what has happened. The truth is that no one really did the detailed sums as to what the figures would mean to the staggering 23 different pilot pay groupings that have emerged (not to mention the 4 sub-species of Training Captain)! There was a general calculation but no grand spreadsheet that would tell the whole truth for all groups. These spreadsheets are starting to appear now but there is disupte over the accuracy of the figures and as far as I know there is still no one big spreadsheet that covers the various permutations for all cases. We all fall into one of those 23 pay groupings (and 4 sub-groupings!) and, not surprisingly, have taken a considerable interest in our own little world. Gradually, each of us has seen how the proposed deal applies to ourselves but at this juncture no one (including the management) have a definitve grasp of every sub-group and combination. Unsurprsingly this has spread considerable uncertainty and confusion. I like to think of myself as tolerably numerate but trying to work out the permuations of possible bonus payments against numbers of sectors flown along with ASBYs, night stops, sim payments etc has really blown my mind!
There are clearly lessons to be learnt here about publishing such a radical restructuring without the full details to hand. Those lessons apply to both BALPA and management, but I personally do not believe that the ensuing confusion was intended (call me foolish I know!). Everyone knows that the devil is in the detail and over the next few days the detailed truth about the deal will emerge for us all to see. There is no doubt in my mind that there is a few bob more in the kitty and I believe a new offer (with a few necessary tweaks!) will be forthcoming. Only at that stage will we really know if this is 'smoke and mirrors' or a realistic attempt at dealing with the issues we are all grappling with.