Originally Posted by eagle 86
I can't help thinking at times that we are being conned into believing that the world is RAPIDLY running out of fossil fuel - I'm not saying that it isn't a finite resource - but some time back I was involved in a high level Defence/Oil industry exercise in a Western nation where an oil executive in a commercially/defence sensitive briefing indicated that known reserves at that time were enough to last that country at that rate of usage for approximately 400 years. Since then it is widely known that that country has tapped/capped much more good quality oil.
Further I find it hard to believe that mankind, amongst all his technical achievements, can't throw together a few carbon/hydrogen/oxygen atoms and synthesise the stuff.
If the doomsayers are saying that we've got 20 years left and they are right then there is no where near enough work being put into replacement fuels - the world as we know it will grind to a halt and chaos will reign. Personally I cannot envisage this scenario!
GAGS
E86
It ain't about running out per se, it's about the production peak vs the demand curve.
With regard to alternatives discussed to liquid hydrocarbons, I'll just go and do up my seat belt on that plane now, as the chicken entrails indicate we are in the vicinity of the peak, where we will find out if the geologists such as CAmpbell and Co are right with their concerns, or the economists from MIT are correct in the assertion that supply will be developed in the face of serious demand.
Ethanol is workable but the corrosion issues need to be ironed out, and right now, not tomorrow please...
GTL is not a solution if based on gas deposits, if peak oil is going to be fun, wait for winters with peak gas, coming to your part of the world soon...
GTL from reformed coal feedstock is viable, and proven technology Fischer-Tropsch, SASOL (3 versions) and results in clean fuels up to C10's, but needs viable sequestration of CO2 to be acceptable unless catatrophic shortages occur...hmmm. Again better get in quick, ramp up takes time, and look at the rate of supply decay that occurs even with new field commencements.
For the last 20 years, we have use 6 barrels for each new one found.
current demand equates to the use of 400 years of biomass each year, assuming perfect conversion of the global biomass to oil...
Either we get this right, or we are going to be living in a really exciting time, as it is unlikely that many of the rocks population are going to volunteer to vacate.
Hope lots that it is a big beatup, and that the answers are sitting in cabinets, gathering dust, awaiting the right time for salvation of hydrocarbon man.
Now I do however hanker for PBMR/AVR GCR's using lots of Thorium
. Low risk, high efficiency, and long term storage, proliferation not an issue. Now we are talking...possibly why the Chinese have what would amount to an emergency program developing same, proposing adding same electrical capacity as global 2002 in the next 25 years
.
Must off now, got an SUV to fill up...