From my experience as a crew planner for a certain well know airline (no i'm not working there anymore - off for a summers tugging
) you have to look at it from the business point of view.
Pilots are numbers on a spreadsheet. Sorry but thats it! - I used to sit there and work out I needed x pilots online by y date in order to keep the program running etc.
I would then go round to pilot recruitment and say right I need 10 FO's on this course on this aircraft - usually this would be a last minute decison because a route/base etc had been introduced at the last minute.
The pilot recuitment manager then has to fill a course quickly with people who he knows are low risk - i.e. can pass the training in the specified footprint and get online by the required date. People dropping off the course halfway though can cause huge problems with rosters having to re-written + replacement crews found at short notice (most of the line guys being at max hours already
)
I.e. - the pilot recuitment manager goes for the easy option - ready packaged cadets which are seen as a sure bet or guys with lots of turboprop or other jet exp.
When I first did this job it was acceptable to run the line in a slight surplus to create a buffer - and this allowed more time to get people online so perhaps a recruiter would take a punt on a marginal guy + we had some slack in the system to allow for drop outs etc... NOW its run by accountants as said above and they said "Lose the buffer, its additional cost" Bloody madness if you ask me but thats the world today
