A report on ABC radio today suggests the Japanese tourist market is already severely floundering, with JAL considering withdrawing services to Australia (whether a consequence or co-incident was not clear).
Apparently Thailand, and still Hawaii, are the favourites and Australia has been dumped. A big part of the reason was an increasingly sophisitcated Japanaese tourist market who would not put up with the 'scalping' thye have received by uncscrupulous stores or tour operators. Something Australia has developed some notoriety for (admittedly many of them owned by Japanese companies to start with).