Qantas must be in a real dilemma about the possibility of having an aircraft go non-stop because of what it will do to the existing Kangaroo route.
With the A380 just over a year away and no doubt configured in a very expensive tri-class config, having the choice (well potential) to operate a non-stop service but risk taking away some of your most profitable and highest revenue generating seats must make for some interesting internal discussion.
From a business pax perspective, I think most people would prefer to fly non-stop and the only way to make a long range mid size airliner like the 777-200LR work on such a sector is if you are flying high revenue generating seats (e.g. mainly business (say 70% of seats, 10% first and 20% premium economy but certainly no discount seats).
How viable is it? If you assumed the following scenario:
- Two flights going to LHR (ex SYD) with similar arrival times
- One leaves SYD 2 hours later than the first
- The first is via SIN or BKK, with 550 other pax (you know what the lounge can look like)
- The second is 150 pax all in J & F
- The J class pax is travelling for work and is not paying for his/her ticket
The only way to make the one-stop flight attractive would be to offer a reduced fare in business or first (or charge a premium for the non-stop). Given the uniqueness of the service, they probably would get a premium but there is a lot of alternative competition for the one-stop…
And if the non-stop proved as popular as what I think it would become, the A380 would need to be re-configured in a higher density config…
Given the above, I can certainly see why it is not just a case of "can the aircraft fly the route..."
Apologies for this lengthy (and boring) response!