The numbers are huge. I think they were published here before- try search?
When people talk about a pilot shortage in the future; it will be a shortage of experienced pilots and captains not low hour graduates.
My opinion on this subject is that the industry will be flooded with low hour inexperienced pilots. With a huge number going for such few places! Especially with all the marketing hype from FTO’s. It must mean that many are going to be left disappointed.
The question I want to ask is will new pilot graduates be of the highest quality?
Natural selection will weed out those of poor quality!